Abstract

In order to measure the effects of the monetary union on the intra zone trade, the study call on, a structural VAR, to which is associated the method of space state model assessment with the aim of distinguishing the impact of an economic policy shock in a group of country in open economy. The sample is constituted in this particular case of the 12 countries of the zone franc; seven countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) zone and five countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) zone. The results of the investigations show a sensitive reduction of the effects borders, an improvement of the institutional effects as well as the effects bound to the distance on the flux of the intra zone trade. On the other hand, the study by structural VAR and Kalman filter shows a relative symmetry of shocks observed in the real shocks of demand while the shocks of price and supply rather present an asymmetric character.

Key words: Structural VAR model, optimal currency area, shocks symmetry, Kalman filter.