Chosenia arbutifolia was used as a case study for establishing a priority protected area (PPA) due to climate change in Northeastern China. A detailed investigation of 2884 plots in Northeastern China and model current and future potential suitable habitat distributions of C. arbutifolia was done to plan PPAs due to climate change. A general computational method was tested for the PPAs prediction using different classical models. First, the current and future suitable habitats of C. arbutifolia was estimated using species distribution model (Maxent). Second, PPAs was identified using the results of Maxent and systematic conservation planning software (zonation). In doing so, we were able to identify key protection areas. Our results suggest that PPAs may be able to integrate the current and future suitable habitats of C. arbutifolia into a single practical zone for sustainable development. Existing nature reserves in these areas were found to be much smaller than the PPAs we identified, suggesting the need for expansion of these zones. Finally, some recommended protection areas based on our PPAs were highlight, which can provide areas of both in situ and ex situ conservation for C. arbutifolia. Our results have broad implications for conservation biology and the redefinition of protective zones for at-risk species.
Key words: Chosenia arbutifolia, Northeastern China, Maxent, zonation, climate change.
PPA, Priority protected area; SDM, species distribution model; GIS, geographic information system; GCM, global climate model; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; AUC, the area under the ROC curve; GSPC, Global Strategy for Plant Conservation.
Copyright © 2018 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article.
This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0