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The impact of
changes in Turkey’s hazelnut policy on world markets
Zeki Bayramoglu1, O. Orkan
Ozer2, Erdemir Gundogmus and F. Fusun
Tatlidil
1Selcuk
University, Faculty of Agriculture Department of
Agricultural Economy 42075 Selcuklu / Konya / Turkey.
2Ankara
University Faculty of Agriculture, Department of
Agricultural Economy, 06110 Diskapi Ankara / Turkey.
*Corresponding author. E-mail:
zbayramoglu@selcuk.edu.tr . Tel: +90 332 223 28 77. Fax:
+90 332 241 01 08.
Accepted 19 November, 2009 |
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The present study analyzes the manner in which changes in
Turkey’s hazelnut policies shall affect the world hazelnut
markets via price impacts of these policy changes. For this
aim, a multi-region partial equilibrium model for Turkey,
Italy, Spain, USA and Germany, the main participants in the
world hazelnut market, was developed. Since most of the
world hazelnut production and export belongs to Turkey,
export prices of Turkey were accepted as data for the world
markets. In the model, the manner in which changes in
Turkey’s hazelnut policies reflects upon the international
markets via prices was explained. Besides, scenarios with
regard to Turkey’s possible policy changes were given and
with the help of the estimated model, future conditions of
exports and imports of the countries participating in the
international hazelnut market were estimated. According to
the model results, it is expected that a decrease in
Turkey’s hazelnut production areas would lead to an increase
of its effectiveness in international markets. The decrease
in production areas shall raise the prices. However, it is
expected that prices remaining stable shall increase the
amount of hazelnut exports of Turkey. Therefore, this
situation shall increase Turkey’s hazelnut export income and
decrease other exporter countries’ exports and their impact
on the market. In order to achieve these results, legal
arrangements done by Turkey with respect to narrowing the
production areas should be successfully implemented.
Key words:
Hazelnut, partial equilibrium analysis, foreign trade,
policy changes, Turkey. |
