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Unascertained number in
grain emergency
Liu Guangli*, Li Di and Gao Youjian
College of
Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural
University, Beijing, 100083, China.
*Corresponding author. E-mail:
liugl@cau.edu.cn.
Accepted 1 December, 2009 |
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Path
selection problems for grain emergency are uncertainties.
According to unascertained theory, the opinions of experts
in related fields can be unascertained number, as well as
the definition of mathematical expectation to rationally
integrate. A new model and the algorithm for path choosing
is proposed based on minimum risk in the process of grain
emergency transportation. First of all, by the estimated
time of each path, several expert advice unascertained
number available. Then, based on unascertained number of
addition and multiplication rules, comprehensive expert
advice you unascertained number can be calculated. Then
again, the unascertained number of expectations and
credibility can be calculated. Finally, the expectations of
unascertained numbers add up, and the estimated time of the
known path, thereby minimizing the risk of the shortest path
can be calculated. Experimental data show that the proposed
model has a certain rationality and effectiveness.
Key
words:
Unascertained number, grain emergency, risk. |
