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Effects of
HIV/AIDS and drought on changing cropping patterns: A case
study of Zambia
Vincent Amanor-Boadu
Department of
Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan,
KS 66506, USA. E-mail:
Vince-nt@ksu.edu. Tel: 785-532-3520. Fax:
785-532-6925.
Accepted 9 July, 2010 |
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The HIV/AIDS pandemic and changing climate patterns in
southern Africa are expected to alter cropping patterns in
the region. In this research, an attempt is made to measure
and compare the effects of HIV/AIDS and drought on cropping
patterns using econometric models and time series data. The
research focused on Zambia as a case study and used data
taken from 1961 - 2007. The study’s results indicated that
while the effect of HIV/AIDS was statistically significant
in explaining changes in cropland allocations for both
cassava and maize, the effect of drought was only
significant in explaining changes in cassava’s cropland
allocations. They showed that although the absolute effect
of drought on cropping pattern changes was higher in both
crops, HIV/AIDS presented a stronger explanatory power.
Based on these results, it is recommended that the pursuit
of drought-tolerant technologies must continue in countries
depending on rain-fed agriculture technologies for their
food supply. However, because of the labor supply risk posed
by HIV/AIDS to agricultural production, it is important that
governments develop partnerships with non-governmental
organizations, corporations and foreign governments to help
control its spread, reduce the prevalence rate and secure
effective therapeutic solutions for infected rural
populations.
Key words:
HIV/AIDS, crop patterns, drought, food security, cassava,
maize.
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