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Geospatial analysis of potential impacts of climate change
on coastal urban settlements in Nigeria for the 21st
century
O. Ekanade1, Ayanlade A1* and
Orimoogunje I. O. O1
1Department
of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
*Corresponding author. E-mail:
sinaayanlade@yahoo.co.uk. or
+2348061245470.
Accepted
30 April, 2008 |
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At present,
there are substantial scientific uncertainties about the
nature and magnitude of climate change impacts that might
result from an effective doubling of CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere of the coastal urban settlements of Nigeria.
This is because large percentage of Nigeria's urban
population lives in coastal cities. This study examines the
potential impact of climate change on the coastal cities of
Lagos and Port Harcourt using the Model for the Assessment
of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC-SCENGEN)
and Geographical Information System (GIS) interpolation
techniques. The results confirm that sea
level rise may occur with a consequence of submerging all
coastal cities of the Niger delta area and a larger part of
Lagos. The parts left un-submerged may face the risk of
incessant flooding. These will also disrupt communications,
damage vital infrastructures and affect urban settlements
along the coast. The impacts of climate change may be felt
also by a wide spectrum of socio-economic variables like
human health, transport, energy, industry and other service
sectors.
Key
words: Climate change, coastal cities, MAGICC-SCENGEN,
GIS, temperature,
precipitation. |
