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Full Length Research Paper
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Technology
forecasting of new clean energy: The example of hydrogen
energy and fuel cell
Yu-Heng Chen*, Chia-Yon Chen,
Shun-Chung Lee
Department of Resources Engineering, National Cheng Kung
University, Tainan City, Taiwan (R. O. C.).
*Corresponding author. E-mail:
luegg100@gmail.com.
Tel: 886 6 2757575x62826. Fax: 886 6 2380421.
Accepted 13 May, 2010 |
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Abstract |
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Due to energy shortage, global warming and climate change,
balanced development of energy security, economic growth, and
environmental protection (3Es) has become a major energy policy
issue and prompted the development of low-carbon economies. The
goals of exploiting new clean energies, improving the efficiency
of conventional energy sources, and improving renewable energy
technologies have gathered considerable attention of governments
worldwide. Among the much clean energy, hydrogen energy plays an
important part in new clean energy fields nowadays.
However, little has been done in discussing the technology
forecasting for the hydrogen energy development. Therefore, this
study predicts the technological S-curves for hydrogen energy
and fuel cell technologies by integrating bibliometric and
patent analysis into the logistic growth curve model, which
includes generation, storage, proton exchange membrane fuel cell
(PEMFC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and direct methanol fuel
cell/direct alcohol fuel cell (DMFC/DAFC). Empirical analysis is
via an expert survey and co-word analysis using the USPTO
database to obtain useful data. The results demonstrate that
technologies for generating and storing hydrogen have not yet
reached technological maturity, and the fuel cell technology is
either in the mature stage or approaching maturity.
Key words:
Hydrogen energy, technology forecasting, S-curves, bibliometric
analysis, fuel cell. |
