|
Multicointegration analysis on the high yielding Boro rice
of six selected districts in Bangladesh
Provash Kumar Karmokar1,3*, Mahendran Shitan1,2
and
A. B. M. Rabiul Alam Beg4
1Laboratory
of Computational Statistics and Operations Research,
Institute for Mathematical Research, University Putra
Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
2Department
of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Universiti Putra
Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang,
Selangor, Malaysia.
3Department
of Statistics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi-6205,
Bangladesh.
4School
of Business, James Cook University, Australia.
Accepted 9 August, 2011 |
|
Rice is the principal agricultural crop in Bangladesh and
Boro rice is a special variety of rice. Production of Boro
rice differs from district to district due to various
factors like environment, geographical location, climatic
changes, etc. In this article, our particular interest is
whether or not cointegration/multicointegration exists
amongst six major rice producing districts in Bangladesh.
The six districts are Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Tangail, Kushtia,
Mymensingh and Barisal. Multicointegration of rice
productions in these districts is analyzed within the error
correction framework. Our analysis indicated that
multicointegtation exist amongst Boro rice production of
Mymensingh, Boro rice production of Barisal and the
estimated Boro rice production of Kushtia. As such, the
error correction technique was required and the results
indicated that the estimated speed of adjustment coefficient
of the ‘error correction model’ for Barisal indicates that
approximately 66% of any deviation from the long-run path is
corrected within a year. Further, the Granger causality from
Mymensingh and estimated Boro production of Kushtia to
Barisal exist within this estimated ‘error correction
model’. The results of this study would aid in policy
decision making.
Key words: Cointegration, multicointegration, granger
causality, error correction, speed of adjustment. |
